Jupiter uses regional sea level rise scenarios based on mainstream emissions pathways and the most up-to-date scientific assessments by authoritative bodies such as the IPCC and NOAA.

• Low
• Intermediate
• High

Low

A lower-end sea level rise scenario that results in global average increases in sea level of 0.3 meters by the year 2100. This scenario is generally consistent with an extrapolation of sea level measurements from the last 30 years. The stringent mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 has a 94% chance of exceeding this lower-end sea level rise scenario. Achieving RCP 2.6 would require emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and institutional challenges, which increase with delays in additional mitigation and if key technologies are not available.

Intermediate

Intermediate is a mid-range sea level rise scenario that results in global average increases in sea level of 1.0 meters by the year 2100. This scenario is broadly consistent with RCP 8.5, which is likely to result in global temperature increases of 2.6 to 4.8 degrees Celsius relative to current global temperature. Pathways ranging between RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 are expected if global emission growth continues to persist and there are no additional efforts to reduce emissions beyond those already in place. Under the intermediate sea level rise scenario there is moderate melting of polar ice sheets and ocean warming.

High

High is a higher-end scenario that results in 2.0 meters of sea level rise by the year 2100. This scenario is broadly consistent with RCP 8.5, which is likely to result in global temperature increases of 2.6 to 4.8 degrees Celsius relative to current global temperature. Pathways ranging between RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 are expected if global emission growth continues to persist and there are no additional efforts to reduce emissions beyond those already in place. Under the high sea level rise scenario there is physically plausible and higher-end estimates of sea level rise from melting polar ice sheets and warming oceans.