Flooding in any given area is caused by a number of different factors. The Jupiter science team continuously analyzes flooding events and uses advances climate, weather and hydrodynamic models to simulate flooding based on various factors including: precipitation, tropical cyclones, non-tropical cyclone surges, and sea level rise.

FloodScore allows in-depth analysis of the following flood hazards:  

• Tropical Cyclone Surge
• Mid-Latitude Cyclone Surge
• Coastal Flooding
• Seasonal High Tide
• Precipitation Flooding
• Combined Surge

Tropical Cyclone Surge

Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones depends on the sea level and tide when the surge hits. In addition to a baseline local mean sea level set at estimated 2018 levels, we assign low, intermediate and high scenarios for future sea level rise based on the most current scientific consensus. The local sea-level scenarios applied for all geographies are consistent with global sea-level scenarios, while accounting for regional variations.

Mid-Latitude Cyclone Surge

This term includes coastal storms that do not originate in the tropics (e.g. nor’easters) and other events that push water from the ocean onto the land. These events can be particularly impactful if they occur at high tide or so-called annual “king tides,” and will increase in severity as sea level rises. 

Coastal Flooding

Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones depends on the sea level and tide when the surge hits. In addition to a baseline local mean sea level set at estimated 2018 levels, we assign low, intermediate and high scenarios for future sea level rise based on the most current scientific consensus. The local sea-level scenarios applied for all geographies are consistent with global sea-level scenarios, while accounting for regional variations.

Seasonal High Tide

Some coastal regions are particularly susceptible to periods of very high tides that can lead to nuisance flooding. Colloquially these are sometimes called flooding from “King Tides” or “Sunny Day” flooding. These result from a combination of factors that can include high astronomical tides, regionally high ocean temperatures, and large-scale oceanic circulation. A specific Seasonal Flooding layer is provided where observational data is sufficient to provide input to our models that make it possible to separate this class of hazard from MId-Latitude Cyclone Surge. Instead of presenting probabilities of a single flood each year, which can be 100%, we present number days per year of expected Seasonal High-Tide Flooding.

Precipitation Flooding

For estimating future flooding risk at all geographies, an ensemble of climate simulations including natural variability from CESM-LENS were used as an estimate of changing weather patterns. These simulations are well respected internationally and available globally. Potential extreme precipitation events were identified in the CESM-LENS and matched to similar events in the high-resolution precipitation/flooding catalog. The frequency and magnitude of these sampled events allows estimates of evolving flood risk. 

Combined Surge

In the coastal zone, the probability of surge from tropical cyclones and other factors (e.g. extratropical cyclones, very high tides) are explicitly combined by assuming that multiple factors that force surge are independent (a good assumption in most locations and most of the time). To directly address the peril, we present a statistical combination of the probabilities of each hazard in the flood peril, valid at each pixel. The Combined Surge layer thus provides the flooding peril to be expected from any one hazard or another.